Ireland in 2122

 

As COVID-19 is a worldwide problem, it has enormous travel implications at the global macro level. This is an opinion piece looking at Ireland as a barometer of that macro world experience and its changing status over the last century. Hopefully setting up the conversation as to where will Ireland be economically, socially and geopolitically one hundred years hence. Irish citizens global travel experience has been greatly facilitated and enhanced by the success of Ireland Inc.

These historical experiences and lessons could have a very tangible impact on Irish citizens global travel experience, in the future.

As always foreign travel is intrinsically linked to the travellers health and economic well being.

 

What will Ireland look like a 100 years from now (2122), based on the foundation stone of the previous 100 years. This year is the anniversary of the founding of the Irish Free State (1922).

 

 

To successfully look forward in time, one should look backwards initially over a similar period of time. History has the sometimes annoying habit of repeating itself over and over again. Evidenced in financial terms by the global crashes in both 1929 and 2007, or the global health pandemics in 1918 and 2020, to name but two. Global recognised success or failure in very many fields of interest and endeavour, tend to align themselves quite nicely, when studied statically. It is an admirable feature of human nature, in the main, that humans in general have a preference to remember the positives, whilst equally having a collective amnesia or at the very least a collective disassociation from the negative associations of their mid-term and particularly their long-term history.

 

 

 

 

In the corporate world of today’s modern Ireland, a task such as this could probably, at last initially, be best addressed by the applying a SWOT analysis approach:-

 

Strengths:

• In the course of the last 100 years, the average Irish citizen statistically has never been healthier than he/she is today in 2022;

 

• Equally, the average Irish citizen statistically has never been better educated than he/she is today in 2022;

 

• The UN nation states happiness index places Ireland as ranking second in the world after Norway and in the top four of preferred countries to live in worldwide;

 

• It is universally recognised that Irish citizens are now experiencing much greater personal freedoms in 2022, than at any other time in their previous 100 year history;

 

• The average Irish citizen now earns five times more than their equivalent grandparents generation;

 

 

Weaknesses:

• In the course of the last 70 years, Ireland’s exponential rise in global standings has been a function of our very low base as a starting point. From the 1950’s to the 2000s it could be said that progressive national progress was inevitable, not so the next 100 years. National improvement in the future should be slower and harder won;

 

• Ireland has been reducing its dependence on UK markets, year on year. Possibly as a good backup reserve, at the very least, minimal engagement in all the UK goods and services markets should be maintained given our geographic proximity and our historical interdependencies.

 

 

 

Opportunities;

• With the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, Ireland is now the only remaining EU member state with English as its first language;

 

• As a small export oriented economy, back in the 1950’s to the 2000s 90% of our Irish exports went to the UK. In the last number of years this has been turned around to where 90% of our exports are global and only 10% to the UK;

 

• Ireland now exports more services than goods;

 

• As a small island nation we now are now one of the top countries in the world at attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);

 

• Ireland has succeeded in eliminating our emigration tradition of exporting our best and brightest. The success on foreign shores of these Irish diaspora has often paid dividends in times of past national need.

 

 

 

 

 

Threats:

• Ireland by all present global indicators is now in pole position when compared with the other nations on the Earth. This position in global standings was achieved by our improved economic wealth; our improved population wide educational standards; and our extended lifespan outcomes. Other nation States are positioned to benefit from similar factors, with the result that for Ireland to remain in the top rankings, we have to now run faster to stand still.

 

• As evidenced by the American model, decades of previous positive developments can be quickly undermined by individualism replacing equality and community which would only lead us towards alienation and general disenfranchisement in the value we all now place on being identified as being Irish;

 

• Ireland now houses the European headquarters of all of the worlds top Tech and Pharma multinationals;

 

• As a small export oriented economy we are more exposed than ever to any possible retrenchment of global multinational companies back to their countries of origin, should that happen.

 

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, there is no crystal ball presently available that would allow one to look forward into Ireland Inc’s next 100 years. 

All we can do is to constructively postulate on our collective previous experience.

If our past experience is indicative of future progress, then the future of Ireland is bright, even to the most negative thinkers.